Canada’s housing market showed renewed activity after a slow start, prompting a national forecast upgrade as stronger demand began outpacing limited supply.
In the first half of 2026, home sales stayed below yearly levels, while prices were broadly flat across Canada despite improving buyer confidence.
The firm expects Canada’s aggregate home price to rise ~2% in 2026, with Toronto outperforming earlier expectations and Vancouver recovering more slowly.
The gap between Canada’s priciest and least expensive markets narrowed as affordability improved in Toronto and Vancouver, reducing pressure for buyers to relocate.
Most borrowers renewing ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages are widely expected to keep making payments, so Canada is not expected to see many forced sales.

Canada's next building permits update is expected to show a MoM ↓~2% in Late-Q2, extending the prior period's slightly smaller ↓~2% move.
That expected pullback points to slower construction activity in Canada and gives investors an early signal on housing-market momentum before the official data release.
If the decline comes in smaller than expected, it may show Canada's housing sector has held up better under pressure, supporting confidence in construction-related industries.
If the estimated ↓~2% is confirmed, investors may read it as softer confidence and a cooler housing market, with broader effects on jobs and investment.
For Canada, permit trends can shape views on Real Estate, construction, consumer spending, and how the central bank may weigh future economic forecasts.

Canada’s foreign-buyer ban is set to expire January 1, 2027, and federal officials are exploring rules steering offshore money toward new construction and redevelopment.
Housing supply remains central: the housing agency says Canada must roughly double annual starts over the next decade, from ~259K now to 430K-480K.
The model under review would allow foreign purchases of new construction and vacant land, while keeping existing homes off-limits to direct capital toward supply.
Current rules already include some exemptions for vacant land, redevelopment and certain publicly traded entities in Canada, and they apply mainly across Canada’s urban markets.
Mortgage brokers, agents, lawyers and notaries have a stake in the policy shift, and current rules make protective contract provisions especially important.
As the 2027 expiry nears, policymakers are expected to sort access by property type and development intent, reopening targeted segments to foreign capital.